When an investment advertises a high return, that seems too good to be real, it almost certainly is.
In these “too good to be real” situations, you often take on a undisclosed high level of risk, or the quoted return is based on “return of capital”, not earnings. See Hazardous Advice – Reaching for Yield for an example of the return-of-capital situation.
Yes, It Is A Real Investment
But today the U.S. Government announced the interest rate for Series I Savings Bonds for the next six months. For bonds issued between November 2021 and April 2022, the initial interest rate is 7.12%.
This rate only applies to the first 6 months you own the bond. The rate is then reset every six months thereafter.
Interest rate for the Series I Savings Bond is based on a combination of a fixed rate (currently 0%) and a inflation rate adjustment (currently 7.12%).
Important to note that if/when inflation subsides, the interest payments on these savings bonds will decrease. Potentially substantially. One year ago, in November 2020, Series I savings bonds were paying under 1.7% (still not bad compared to most savings accounts).
But, as opposed to TIPS, the interest paid can never go below 0%.
See my prior post (Savings Bonds – Inflation Hedge Series) for details on investing in Series I Savings Bonds and some of the pitfalls to be aware of.
Details on how to purchase Series I Savings Bonds and the latest interest rate can be found on the TreasuryDirect.gov website.
Comparison to Other “Risk-free” Investment Returns
Series I Savings Bonds are probably most comparable to Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS).
They both are issued, and backed, by the U.S. Federal government and both provide a return based on the inflation rate.
The latest auction of 5-year TIPS was held in October 2021, resulting in a median yield of -1.75%.
Yes, you read that correctly, these TIPS pay a negative interest rate. Locking in a negative real return for bond holders of about 8.5% over their five year term. See Are TIPS a Good Investment – Inflation Hedge Series.
Looking at regular treasury bonds, the latest 5-year note auction resulted in a median yield of 1.1%.
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