• Look into the crystal ball

    Five Predictions For 2020

    2020 Predictions The Chinese stock market will outperform Berkshire Hathaway will cut several deals with distressed companies at bargain prices Top line shines, margins suffer for diversified retailers (grocery) The Fed will nationalize an additional $5+ trillion of the national debt Extraordinary government programs to bailout small businesses   With large swaths of the global […]

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  • The company logos

    Demand in the age of Coronavirus

    The economic shock delivered by the COVID-19 pandemic has been swift and severe for capital markets. In only a few short weeks many market indices are down 30-40% from recent highs. These large declines in stock prices reflect Mr. Market factoring significantly lower corporate earnings in the future (and a large amount of uncertainty). So, […]

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  • Decade in Review

    U.S. Large Stocks Dominate Investing this past decade has been defined by a long bull market rising from the ashes of the Great Financial Crisis of 2007-2008. The current bull market—defined as a generally increasing stock market without a 20% decline—is now almost 11 years old, the longest in U.S. history. Like other bull markets, […]

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  • U.S. default on National Debt

    How the USA will default on the national debt

    Once upon a time, politicians paid lip-service to the idea that our country should operate with some semblance of fiscal responsibility. It’s almost comical to look back at Ross Perot’s presidential runs in 1992 and 1996 when he used flip charts to rally against government debt. Back then the United States had a national debt […]

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  • Hazardous Advice - watch out!

    Hazardous Advice—Reaching for Yield

    Acting on generic investment advice in magazines—or on the internet—can be hazardous to your wealth. In their desire to attract readers, publications often fail to fully explain an investment or adequately disclose the risks. The other day I ran across a particularly worrisome article on Forbes.com with the title “The Amazing 8.8% Cash Payout No […]

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  • Financial Ribbernecking - how do you stack up?

    How Do You Stack Up?

    Employees at technology companies—as a group—are highly compensated. Nonetheless, it may not feel like it, given the high cost of living in tech hubs like Seattle or the San Francisco Bay Area. To keep grounded in reality, I look forward every three years to the Federal Reserve Board’s Survey of Consumer Finances for the latest […]

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